Well this is promising.
Steps toward democracy in the Arab world, a crucial American goal that just months ago was cause for optimism — with elections held in Iraq, Egypt and the Palestinian areas — are slowing, blocked by legal maneuvers and official changes of heart throughout the Middle East.
Analysts and officials say the political rise of Islamists, the chaos in Iraq, the newfound Shiite power in Iraq with its implication for growing Iranian influence, and the sense among some rulers that they can wait out the end of the Bush administration have put the brakes on democratization.
Despite all the rhetoric, the Bush administration has been one of the worst things for Middle Eastern democratization. There are two major things going on here: First, this administration’s invasion of Iraq and hawkish Middle Eastern policy have turned many people in that area against us; the feeling seems to be that the U.S. set on invading the entire region and importing our culture and values. This fuels anti-Westernism, and various laudable goals — democracy, women’s rights, free speech/press/association, secularism, etc — are branded “Western ideas,” viewed as tools of an imperial power, and actively shunned. Second, when you do either force or allow democracy in a climate like the current one — where many in the Middle East feel that their religion and cultures are under direct attack, and are digging their heels into conservatism as a response — you get less-than-ideal election results (see Palestine, Egypt, etc).
When groups like Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood gain power, the response from relevant nations can be incredibly telling — and can have very negative consequences if carried out poorly. Mubarak’s government made concerted efforts to suppress the conservative Muslim vote in the first place, and now he has delayed municipal elections for two years. Israel refuses to negotiate with Hamas until they renounce violence (reasonable enough), and has almost completely cut Palestine off financially (not all that reasonable). When American foreign policy is willfully blind to other cultures, and when our actions result in the easily foreseeable radicalization of entire populations, we can’t act surprised when democratic systems produce results that are hostile to our interests.
This leaves us with some difficult choices: Promote pure democracy with the understanding that democratic elections, right now in the Middle East, will often mean that elected officials are not sympathetic to the United States and not strategically aligned with our interests; or hypocritically abandon our support of democracy in favor of working with authoritarian leaders who will be more inclined to toe the U.S. line.
Of course, it’s not always an either-or proposition, and the more comprehensive solution falls in the “changing hearts and minds” category. But you can’t do that through forcible invasion and occupation.
I’ve focused on Egypt and Palestine because they are the areas with which I’m most familiar; problems with democracy, though, are cropping up throughout the Middle East, from Bahrain to Saudi to Jordan. And there doesn’t seem to be a solution in sight.