So this happened.
Pretty big deal. Here’s the decision (PDF). And beyond just being glad that the court upheld health care reform, I’m pleased to see Justice Roberts’ intellectual honesty on this one. The health care law was written extremely carefully to be in line with Supreme Court precedent on Congressional regulation of health. No one seriously thought that if passed it could be overturned. And then it was passed, and then right-wing lawyers jumped on it and pointed to the mandate especially as a piece of the legislation that was Constitutionally invalid and made some arguments that I don’t really buy but given what they were working with were pretty creative and more convincing than I would have expected. But the truth is that the health care law was pretty solidly in line with Supreme Court precedent on health / Congressional power issues, and it would have been a Big Deal if they had trashed health care reform — not just for HCR itself, but for a century-long line of American law. So I’m glad to see Roberts, who always swore up and down that he cared about precedent more than ideology, actually holding true to that.
And it gives me hope about marriage equality. For the past year or so I’ve been saying that I think the final decision on marriage equality will be a 6-3 split with Roberts and Kennedy joining the more liberal camp — Kennedy because he’s concerned about his legacy and Roberts because it’s awfully hard to come up with a colorable argument that it’s constitutionally permissible to deny marriage rights to same-sex couples. This makes me a little bit more optimistic.